Climate change impacts model parameter sensitivity – implications for calibration strategy and model diagnostic evaluation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Hydrological models are useful tools for exploring the impact of climate change. To prioritize parameters calibration and to evaluate hydrological model functioning, sensitivity analysis can be conducted. Parameter sensitivity, however, varies over climate, therefore change could influence parameter sensitivity. In this study we explore in mean discharge timing discharge, within a plausible rate. We investigate whether changes propagate into strategy diagnostically compare three based on results. employed frequently used (SAC, VIC, HBV) explored across 605 catchments United States by comparing GCM(RCP8.5)-forced historical future periods. Consistent among all both is that snow decreases future. Which other increase less consistent models. 45 % 55 catchments, dependent model, at least one top-5 most sensitive discharge. For timing, between 40 88 %. This requires an adapted long-term projections, which provide several suggestions. The disagreement processes become more relevant projections also calls strict evaluation adequacy structure simulations.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1607-7938', '1027-5606']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1307-2021